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Buildings that know when they need to be fixed before something breaks; sensors that tell the fire department details of a fire before they receive the emergency phone call; smart water and sewage systems that filter and recycle water. . . . .

It’s that time of year here at IBM – when we look to the future and make five predictions of technological trends that will change the way we live in the next five years. Given the current attention to making our cities smarter, for this year’s we have focused on five innovations that will change our cities in the next five years.

Importantly, the list is intended to serve as a discussion point to discuss – and debate – the prospects for our cities and how progress can be made.

If there’s one common thread in all of the advances we see in the coming years, it’s the ability to monitor our environment with sensors and the application of analytics – complex algorithms baked into software – to make decisions based on all of that data. In reality, it’s what we’ve been talking about for the past year here on this blog, but we are just now beginning to see these efforts implemented at the city level to really change how cities work.

Analytics will predict the patterns of how diseases will spread, will enable buildings to evaluate the relationships between their systems and provide real-time information to management, will enable city smart grids to draw on clean energy during peak and off peak hours, find water leaks and more efficient ways to move water, and predict emergencies before they happen to limit their impact.

While these are predictions for the future, in each case the innovation is rooted in work we are just beginning to see pop up with some of our city clients or in our labs today. We’ll spend some time over the next few weeks to go deeper into each one of these topics, sharing what’s happening now and exploring opportunities for the future.

But in the meantime, and without further ado, below is this year’s “Next 5 in 5”:

  1. Cities will have healthier immune systems
    Given their population density, cities will remain hotbeds of communicable diseases. But in the future, public health officials will know precisely when, where and how diseases are spreading – even which neighborhoods will be affected next. Scientists will give city officials, hospitals, schools and workplaces the tools to better detect, track, prepare for and prevent infections, such as the H1N1 virus or seasonal influenza. We will see a “health Internet” emerge, where anonymous medical information, contained in electronic health records, will be securely shared to curtail the spread of disease and keep people healthier.
  2. City buildings will sense and respond like living organisms
    As people move into city buildings at record rates, buildings will be built smartly. Today, many of the systems that constitute a building – heat, water, sewage, electricity, etc. – are managed independently. In the future, the technology that manages facilities will operate like a living organism that can sense and respond quickly, in order to protect citizens, save resources and reduce carbon emissions. Thousands of sensors inside buildings will monitor everything from motion and temperature to humidity, occupancy and light. The building won’t just coexist with nature – it will harness it. This system will enable repairs before something breaks, emergency units to respond quickly with the necessary resources, and consumers and business owners to monitor their energy consumption and carbon emission in real-time and take action to reduce them. Some buildings are already showing signs of intelligence by reducing energy use, improving operational efficiency, and improving comfort and safety for occupants.
  3. Cars and city buses will run on empty
    For the first time, the “E” on gas gauges will mean “enough.” Increasingly, cars and city buses no longer will rely on fossil fuels. Vehicles will begin to run on new battery technology that won’t need to be recharged for days or months at a time, depending on how often you drive. IBM scientists and partners are working to design new batteries that will make it possible for electric vehicles to travel 300 to 500 miles on a single charge, up from 50 to 100 miles currently. Also, smart grids in cities could enable cars to be charged in public places and use renewable energy, such as wind power, for charging so they no longer rely on coal-powered plants. This will lower emissions as well as minimize noise pollution. (see the Battery 500 and Bornholm electric vehicle posts for hints at what is to come)
  4. Smarter systems will quench cities’ thirst for water and save energy
    Today, one in five people lack access to safe drinking water, and municipalities lose an alarming amount of precious water — up to 50 percent through leaky infrastructure. On top of that, human demand for water is expected to increase sixfold in the next 50 years. To deal with this challenge, cities will install smarter water systems to reduce water waste by up to 50 percent. Cities also will install smart sewer systems that not only prevent run-off pollution in rivers and lakes, but purify water to make it drinkable. Advanced water purification technologies will help cities recycle and reuse water locally, reducing energy used to transport water by up to 20 percent. Interactive meters and sensors will be integrated into water and energy systems, providing you with real time, accurate information about your water consumption so you will be able to make better decisions about how and when you use this valuable resource.
  5. Cities will respond to a crisis — even before receiving an emergency phone call
    Cities will be able to reduce and even prevent emergencies, such as crime and disasters. Law enforcement agencies will turn to mathematics and analytics to analyze the right information at the right time, so that public servants can take proactive measures to head off crime. Fire departments will begin using software to potentially prevent fires from happening in the first place. Even today, scientists are beginning to look at past fires, smoke patterns and climate fluctuations to developing models that predict wildfires, to prevent fires and speed public evacuations when they happen.

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24 Comments
 
July 30, 2010
5:49 am

I hope that this sort of thing happens all over the world and not just in the first world. I live in Alicante Spain and things can sometimes get hairy here at times. I like your optimistic view.


Posted by: Alicante Nelson
 
July 29, 2010
11:55 am

It all sounds excellent, but in my lifetime?


Posted by: B&B Portugal
 
July 25, 2010
5:36 pm

I think that technology will be available or is already available to do this, but implementing it in the next five years is not realistic.

At our car rental agency we have a lot of demand to rent electric cars. But we or our competitors don’t have any electric cars. Main reason is luck of the infrastructure. It takes government sponsored or subsidized program to implement a citywide chain of electric charging stations.

Yes Nissan is coming up with a great electric car called Leaf http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/index which has decent range on single charge and Better Place http://www.betterplace.com/ has great initiatives that will bring us closer to the prediction in the video, but not in five years.


Posted by: Frank
 
June 13, 2010
1:15 pm

Well, that’s interesting, it can be variable is destroyed in Israel
Good idea
With something like writing on this site


Posted by: megalodon
 
May 25, 2010
1:06 pm

If the world does not unite to ward off China and India developing the vast coal reserves of Afghanistan and Pakistan it won’t matter much what we do over to clean the planet. Since 2003 I have been e-mailing the world to make these two countries models for developing renewable energy systems.


Posted by: Walter Smith Maj.,USAF,ret
 
February 8, 2010
12:43 pm

those ideas you have mentioned above are great to listen, but how are we going to implement and achive success in overcoming all those problems. and what is the role of software in developing those systems.


Posted by: adarsh
 
January 27, 2010
9:04 am

wow!!!!!!!!!
these are the ultimate ideas i have ever heared about
these needed to be implemented in every city as soon as possible


Posted by: kannav padha
 
January 13, 2010
8:53 am

Some good ideas! I’m just concerned about the personal privacy.
Crime and epedemic preventions are fine things but when all those informations needed for the prevention gets to the wrong hands, it can be catastrophal.
If we’ll not be carefull the state will turn into a Surveillance state before we even realize.
There has to be more than one, maybe 3 instances, that are controlling what the police (for example) is doing with that data.

And preventing crimes before they are commited is a very fine thing, but i hope you considered that one can’t punish oder judge the potential criminal. It’s great against amok runs and terrorism!

I agree with you on the others and support them. With those inventions our world will be one step closer to a good world. Then we’ll just have to help the other worlds, like the third world countries to reach at least some of this comfort we have!


Posted by: Shelly
 
January 13, 2010
8:41 am

The future city is a city with reduced car traffic. The way of doing this without charging high toll fees for entering into the city is by Trafikklogistikk. see my blog: http://trafikklogistikk.com, if you would like to develop this concept togeteher with me, please contact me on: knut@trafikklogistikk.com

regards
Knut
Norway


Posted by: Knut Bøe
 
January 3, 2010
2:24 pm

We are trying to speed your predictions in our Smarter, Safer Greener House Contest. DaVinci Quest has set as part of the criteria for winning our contst a reduction in both energy and water consumption as well as the ability of a home to receive a reverse 911 call by Wi-Fi.

See http://www.davinciquest.com/house_contest.com


Posted by: Karl Dakin
 
January 3, 2010
10:30 am

Disappointed in transportation vision for cities. Electric power makes some sense, but only in cities where pollution and noise are problems. There is much more to consider.

Where is the hard analysis of efficiency, and where are the instruments and sensors you tout in other areas? Cars take up valuable space in cities, resulting in not only congestion, but sprawl — both for wide roads and up to a third of the private land for parking. What about the empty seats in cars, while half the population don’t have their own cars? What about the health downsides of auto-dependency?

We need a system that makes every car stay moving (and productive) and has little unused internal space when it is. With GPS, we can track all vehicles, and tracking the use of spaces inside cars is not difficult, making all spaces/seats available for booking.

Carsharing now fills a niche for those who drive little; but second-gen version could allow one-way use and tracking of where each car will be parked, so that the reservation system knows its location(s) for the near future. Private ownership would be replaced as a result.

Carsharing should be merged with ridesharing, taxi, and car-rental, with transit-linking (via seat reservations) possible (”trans-seat”?)

Yes, private car ownership is wasteful, unnecessary, and ignores the stress and responsibilities of driving in an age where people want to be on-line/in-touch or able to read stuff constantly. The rich know that riding is better than driving, but the auto industry has exalted driving into something it isn’t.

You specialize in systems. Let’s see more systems thinking about how people and goods move, not just in cities, but between them.

Chris Bradshaw


Posted by: Chris Bradshaw
 
January 2, 2010
5:19 am

saç ekimi


Posted by: serkan
 
December 31, 2009
6:10 am

Bu siteden hic bisey anlamadım.I dont know
catering


Posted by: serkan
 
December 28, 2009
1:23 pm

Nice but too naive and not forward thinking enough. All that in 5 years?? And not one scrap of evil applications? “Filling stations” for recharging cars is a very in-the-box idea. If there are windmills on buildings, that’ll mean electricity being made everywhere, not merely available everywhere (not that there’s much difference). So instead of filling stations, we’ll recharge cars constantly as they drive over recharge zones or hotspots, like those pads that can recharge a cell phone by simply resting it on the pad. And the mathematics for tracking outbreaks… seems a little naive to think corporations won’t also try very hard (and win battles) to use the information to track individuals.


Posted by: Charles
 
December 28, 2009
9:15 am

@Ramachandran K The telecommuting point is a good one. When we were at the Transportation Breakout session of the NYC Smarter City Summit (see posts from October 1st-2nd), one of the participants made the point that most of what everyone was talking about involved the “supply side” of the transportation debate, but no one seemed to be talking about the “demand side.” In other words, how we could reduce the demand and strain on our transpotation infrastructure through things like telecommuting, flexible work hours, etc. I hadn’t thought about the effects of that on things like health care too, but as you point out, it IS, indeed a significant opportunity. IBM has something like 40% of it’s US workforce working outside of a traditional office (the majority of which are telecommuters). I wonder if there are any data points I could find that are relevant… stay tuned.


Posted by: Adam Christensen
 
December 27, 2009
7:34 am

A smarter solution will be to enabling more people to telecommute for work, education and trade. When people do not move around or crowd around on place, naturally vehicle usage and possibility of disease spread would decrease. How can science & technology help individual people do all that they want sitting at one place and doing stuff online in secure manner is the biggest innovatiion for a smarter planet or smarter city….hmmm


Posted by: Ramachandran K
 
December 27, 2009
5:23 am

how do we become part of this innovation?


Posted by: Digant
 
December 21, 2009
11:16 pm

This one is very good and I love it!
Hope this can come true soon!


Posted by: Cici
 
December 21, 2009
12:02 pm

With the economy in the tanks, are these things going to sponteneously appear? Perhaps Darwin really was right, at least as a techy. Or is this covered by Obamacare.


Posted by: just_john
 
December 18, 2009
5:29 pm

Love This!


Posted by: Ben Berkowitz
 
December 17, 2009
8:27 pm

Matti – yes, I can see how the police bit sounds like minority report! But I think it’s much more about understanding trends and situations, and quickly taking control of situations – as they are unfolding. And in understanding trends, law enforcement can understand what previously unforeseen factors lead to spikes in criminal activity and move resources to potential areas or situations to calm them before anything occurs. That’s probably as clear as mud. For a current-day example of this, see this video of stuff we’ve done in NYC. I think what we are talking about here is becoming more predictive and bringing this technology to many cities: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74wB9pctFv8


Posted by: Adam Christensen
 
December 17, 2009
2:51 pm

fascinating. the momentum is ramping up for the EVs nudging out polluting trucks and buses, for sure. the smart infrastructure in cities is another hill entirely, but I’m with Phil T., let’s be optimistic and save a spot for me!


Posted by: mk
 
December 17, 2009
2:49 pm

Ooh! That last part with the pre-preventive crime detection sounds like Minority Report!


Posted by: Matti
 
December 17, 2009
12:22 pm

Awesome, I want to live there. Seems a bit optimistic for 5 years out, but I’m an optimist, so I dig it.


Posted by: Phil Tretheway
 
10 Trackbacks
 
May 31, 2010
6:59 pm

Appartamento in Via Bitinia, Roma…

……


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