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Every year IBM predicts the future of technology via the IBM 5 in 5 initiative–our forecast of five innovations that will help transform aspects of modern life, making the planet smarter, within the next five years. We assess not just the availability of a new technology but also the likelihood of its large-scale adoption.
This year’s predictions:
· People power will come to life
· You will never need a password again
· Mind reading is no longer science fiction
· The digital divide will cease to exist
· Junk mail will become priority mail
Join the Twitter converation at #ibm5in5
Click here to vote on the coolest prediction.
Making this kind of prediction is difficult. (In fact, to me, sadly, the one about eliminating the digital divide seems impossible.) So, every year, IBM researchers stick out their necks. Which is risky. “A lot of people wait for things to happen. It’s rare than an organization says: this is a big change, and it’s coming,” says IBM Fellow Bernard Meyerson.
Why do they do it? In addition to the PR value, we complete this exercise annually because it makes IBMers think hard about what’s possible and to strive to make it so. Simply put, the process of choosing the predictions and defending them is good for us.
Meyerson, who plays a role in the annual exercise, says the most useful thing about the process is that it requires IBMers to think holistically about innovation. They can’t consider science and technology in a vacuum. They also have to think deeply about social trends, market conditions the willingness of people to pay for cutting-edge technologies. That’s the kind of thinking that can transform inventions into high-impact innovations.
We’ve been issuing the Next 5 in 5 predictions for the past six years. So, how are we doing? Mindful of the difficulty, and considering the fact that for most of the predictions less than five years have passed, we’ve done pretty well.
Two of the first year’s predictions, for instance, have pretty much come true:
We will be able to access healthcare remotely from just about anywhere in the world. Today, through telemedicine, patients can connect with physicians or specialists from just about anywhere via inexpensive computers and broadband networks. Doctors can view x-rays and other diagnostic imagery from thousands of miles away.
Technologies the size of a few atoms will address areas of environmental importance. Nanotechnology is now used in countless fields and industries, including agriculture, biotechnology and sensor networks, enabling us to understand and interact with the natural environment like never before.
Predictions from other years have panned out as well. A couple of examples:
You will have a crystal ball for your health. Thanks to advances in genetic research and high-performance computing it is now possible to affordably decipher an individual’s entire genome. This makes it possible for physicians to alert people to medical conditions they might fall prey to, and it clears the pathway, eventually, to truly personal medicine.
You will talk to the Web…and the Web will talk back. Today, speech recognition and mobile communications technologies make it possible for people to talk to the Internet using their computers or mobile phones, be understood, and listen to automated voices that are responsive to their needs.
The Next 5 in 5 initiative got its start in an IBM Innovation Jam in 2006. The seed goal was to get the entire company thinking about grand challenges. “If you give people a grand challenge you push them to really innovate,” says Meyerson. “That’s when extraordinary things can happen.”
IBM has played a significant role in each of these breakthroughs. So, it’s working.
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Posted by: IBM: ‘Your PC will read your mind by 2016′
6:29 pm
[...] that seem science fiction today but are thought to be commonplace in 5 years. The selection of the 5 in 5 is based on technological availability in the IBM labs and extrapolating societal [...]
Posted by: IBM Predicts People Power and Mind-controlled Devices | Tech the Future
2:12 pm
[...] de science-fiction ; leur voeu pourrait bientôt devenir réalité”, explique IBM dans ses prédictions annuelles à 5 ans sur les technologies du [...]
Posted by: Bientôt ordinateurs et téléphones pourront lire les pensées « Toutboom's Blog
1:00 pm
[...] ۵ در ۵ [...]
Posted by: پیشگویی های IBM: تنها ۵ سال فاصله تا ذهن خوانی و چیزهایی عجیب تر | دگرگون
12:59 pm
[...] are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual “5 in 5” prognostication [...]
Posted by: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. | Information security & technology news
11:41 am
[...] fiction and science fact on a daily basis,” said IBM officials, as the company rolled out its “5 in 5″ list, which includes the following [...]
Posted by: 5 Innovations IBM Says Will Change Your Life | ironshieldtechng.com
11:37 am
[...] развития человечества на ближайшие пять лет — «5 in 5». Это пять основных трендов, которые должны быть [...]
Posted by: IBM: в течение пяти лет будет реализовано управление электронными устройствами силой мысли | ITC.ua
11:24 am
[...] cinco de 5 in 5 de este año son las [...]
Posted by: 5 in 5 - Las cinco predicciones tecnológicas de IBM para los próximos cinco años
11:15 am
[...] para nuestra casa dic 20th, 2011 | Por laislabuscada | Categoría: Tecnología 5 in 5, o lo que es lo mismo, las cinco predicciones anuales a cinco años vista de IBM ya han sido [...]
Posted by: Según IBM, en 5 años nos leeremos la mente y crearemos energía para nuestra casa - La Isla Buscada
11:06 am
[...] one step closer to realizing that vision. “According to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: The Market Report: 12.20.2011 | We Are The Market
11:04 am
[...] IBM divulgou seu relatório anual “5 in 5″. Nele, a empresa cita cinco tecnologias que ela acredita que existirão nos próximos cinco anos. A [...]
Posted by: Leitura da mente pode chegar nos próximos cinco anos, diz IBM | Blog Marcos Web Master
10:58 am
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: Dear Internet, Signed: Anonymous » If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video]
10:30 am
[...] IBM divulgou seu relatório anual “5 in 5″. Nele, a empresa cita cinco tecnologias que ela acredita que existirão nos próximos cinco anos. A [...]
Posted by: Leitura da mente pode chegar nos próximos cinco anos, diz IBM | Pavablog
10:19 am
[...] 5 in 5, o lo que es lo mismo, las cinco predicciones anuales a cinco años vista de IBM ya han sido formuladas. La mayoría suenan a ciencia ficción en la actualidad, pero podrían no ir mal encaminados si leemos entre líneas. De entre las mismas, dos predicciones destacan sobre las demás. La compañía dice que en cinco años podremos ser capaces de leer la mente de otro y de crear toda la energía necesaria para nuestros hogares. [...]
Posted by: Según IBM, en 5 años nos leeremos la mente y crearemos energía para nuestra casa: Alt1040 #iMAPAS — #iMAPAS
9:47 am
[...] den Menschen einen Mehrwert bieten können. Aber neben der Künstlichen Intelligenz gibt es einige Tech-Trends in weiteren Bereichen wie Energie, Sicherheit, Gedankenlesen, Mobile und Analytics in denen wir in den kommenden fünf Jahren mit technologischen Durchbrüchen rechnen [...]
Posted by: Tech-Trends: 5 Technologien, die unser Leben in 5 Jahren revolutionieren » t3n News
9:19 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | It's Me Adam
8:47 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We'll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years
7:01 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | Startup Help
6:42 am
[...] die Vorhersagen, die IBM-Vordenker im Blog A Smarter Planet gemacht haben, eintreffen? Im Jahr 2016 werden wir es sehen. IBM veröffentlicht seit 2006 jeweils zum Jahresende [...]
Posted by: Trends für 2016 – Bei Gedanken Anruf
6:20 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years –
6:14 am
6:11 am
[...] a few thoughts depending on context.It so happens that this, among other things, is precisely what IBM hopes to make possible over the next five years.Granted, it won’t so much be technopathy (a person’s ability [...]
Posted by: IBM Wants Mind-Controlled Computers in Phones in 5 Years or So | UpToNews.com | News Up To Date
5:46 am
[...] IPhone seems to have done it yet again. Even IBM has included “Talking to the web” in the 5 technologies likely to be available in the next 5 years. If you’re a [...]
Posted by: Siri or Iris, computers understanding the world around them » » Script and Scroll Script and Scroll
5:28 am
[...] Quelle: golem.de, asmarterplanet.com [...]
Posted by: IBM veröffentlicht „Next 5 in 5“ | Hypermedia Trends
5:27 am
5:23 am
[...] so happens that this, among other things, is precisely what IBM hopes to make possible over the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Wants Mind-Controlled Computers in Phones in 5 Years or So
5:22 am
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video] | Wine & Technology News: Myview WordView
5:14 am
[...] This year, they look at things like mind-reading, spam, and sustainable energy. Let’s take a look into the future, according to IBM. [...]
Posted by: Look Into The Future With IBM’s 5-in-5 Tech Predictions
5:10 am
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. Continue reading [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years | The Gadget Blogger
4:55 am
[...] anno IBM pubblica una previsione sulle innovazioni che dovrebbero cambiare la nostra vita nei prossimi cinque anni. Lo studio, [...]
Posted by: IBM 5 in 5: le tecnologie dei prossimi 5 anni | Hardware | Digital.it
4:42 am
[...] تا از ۵ پیشگویی IBM هستند که دیروز در کنفرانس سالیانه « ۵ در ۵ » رونمایی کرد. مراسمی که آی بی ام در آن به معرفی ابداعات [...]
Posted by: پیشگویی های IBM: تنها ۵ سال فاصله تا ذهن خوانی و چیزهای عجیب | thestar.ir
4:03 am
[...] تا از ۵ پیشگویی IBM هستند که دیروز در کنفرانس سالیانه « ۵ در ۵ » رونمایی کرد. مراسمی که آی بی ام در آن به معرفی ابداعات [...]
Posted by: پیشگویی های IBM: تنها ۵ سال فاصله تا ذهن خوانی و چیزهایی عجیب تر | میهن استار به وسعت یک سرزمین
3:24 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years « Social First – Web Design, Social Media and Digital Solutions
3:08 am
3:03 am
[...] the end of junk mail and people powering their homes with their own energy. Read the full article at IBM’s blogRelated PostsShelly Palmer Radio Report – December 20, 2011Filed Under: Top Stories About Shelly [...]
Posted by: IBM Predicts Mind Reading, Personal Energy Sources in 5 Years | Shelly Palmer Digital Living
2:51 am
2:34 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | Like List
2:06 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: - surge-protector-review
1:59 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | Social Reach
1:45 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | JC-Evans, Inc.
1:08 am
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years Down With A.P.P.
1:01 am
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the [...]
Posted by: Video: IBM’s Vision Of Tech Five Years From Now | Gizmodo Australia
12:43 am
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video] « waweru.net
10:37 pm
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: iPhoneNation.com: Apple News and Technology Insiders – IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years
10:28 pm
[...] IBM 0stLight.options({publisher:''});emailComo parte de su campaña Smart Planet de IBM vuelve a mostrarnos un vistazo del futuro, esta vez nos muestra los 5 avances tecnológicos en los próximos 5 años, algunos de los cuales [...]
Posted by: 5 avances en los próximos 5 años según IBM | Tecfilia
10:16 pm
[...] [via IBM] [...]
Posted by: IBM’s Five in Five 2011 predicts mind-controlled devices, goodbye to passwords | Jobbr en
10:14 pm
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | Market 7
9:59 pm
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years | Tech News Aggregator
9:53 pm
[...] according to IBM, which just published its “5 in 5″ forecast: a prediction about five innovations that will fundamentally change our world within the next five [...]
Posted by: IBM Says We’ll Have Mind-Reading Computers Within Five Years |
9:19 pm
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video] : Tech Today w/ Ken May
9:12 pm
[...] are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual “5 in 5” prognostication project. The list is meant to promote long-term work being done under Big [...]
Posted by: » IBM: Mind reading is less than five year …
9:01 pm
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video] | Computer Repair Gainesville
8:46 pm
[...] harvesting. No more passwords. The Death of spam. Technology for everyone. These are five thing IBM believes are the future. Not 50 years in the future, but more like five years in the future. [...]
Posted by: If IBM Has Its Way, This Is What Tech Will Look Like in Five Years [Video] |
6:53 pm
[...] Gadget Prediction of the Day: As part of its “5 in 5″ forecast, outlining five technological advances that could happen in the next five years, IBM is predicting [...]
Posted by: Mind-Controlled Gadget Prediction of the Day - TDW Geeks
6:16 pm
[...] IBM divulgou seu relatório anual “5 in 5″. Nele, a empresa cita cinco tecnologias que ela acredita que existirão nos próximos cinco anos. A [...]
Posted by: EquipINFO » » Leitura da mente pode chegar nos próximos cinco anos, diz IBM
5:04 pm
[...] reading is just one of five bold predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its “5 in5″ initiative, an annual forecast of future innovations. The others [...]
Posted by: Mind Reading a Reality in Five Years, IBM Says | Lose Your Fear
5:01 pm
[...] información:IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real.The IBM 5 in 5: Our Forecast of Five Innovations That Will Alter the…IBM 5 in 5: Mind Reading is no longer science [...]
Posted by: ¿El Mentalismo tiene las horas contadas?
4:50 pm
[...] released its annual prediction of the five technologies that will alter our lives over the next five years, including the end of [...]
Posted by: The future accorded to IBM ‹ Triana Technologies
4:18 pm
[...] thinks will change the way people live and work in the next five years. IBM has now released its 5 in 5 for 2011, and the forecasts contains some doozies — including mind-readying mobile [...]
Posted by: IBM forecasts biometric passwords, mind-reading tech for 2016
1:26 pm
[...] lista atual acabou de ser divulgada e traz ideias no mínimo curiosas acerca das transformações que podem impactar a vida moderna em [...]
Posted by: 5 previsões da IBM para os próximos 5 anos « mdmconsultores
11:39 am
[...] are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual “5 in 5” prognostication [...]
Posted by: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. | Partners In Sublime
11:28 am
[...] are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual “5 in 5” prognostication [...]
Posted by: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. | Custom Software Solutions (Antigua)-Digital World
11:03 am
[...] jaarlijkse lijstje bevat vijf voorspellingen van IBM, over innovaties die volgens het technologiebedrijf in de komende [...]
Posted by: IBM: ‘Gedachtelezen mogelijk binnen vijf jaar’
10:05 am
[...] For more information about the IBM 5 in 5, visit: A Smarter Planet Blog. [...]
Posted by: GSA Technology Council » IBM Reveals Five Innovations That Will Change Our Lives within Five Years
10:04 am
[...] are only 3 of a 5 predictions IBM announced this morning as partial of a annual “5 in 5” conjecture [...]
Posted by: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. - TECHNOLOGY GADGETS – TECHNOLOGY GADGETS
10:02 am
[...] are just three of the five predictions IBM announced this morning as part of its annual “5 in 5” prognostication [...]
Posted by: IBM: Mind reading is less than five years away. For real. | Brian's Blog Site
4:39 am
technical maybe developed close smart to people’s brain, but can never equalled to ,the barrier is the flexible immotion
Posted by: David
5:16 pm
The people power one scares me as it SHOWS IBM HAS NO UNDERSTANDING OF BASIC PHYSICS.
Space is limited but for example, Yes you could extract energy from the water flowing in your pipes but remember that kinetic energy was put in by the water supplier – so your not gaining in terms of CO2. The fact you can’t figure this one out is truly terrifying. Seeding these as challenges to your organisation is like brainstorming a new watch design while sitting on the Titanic as it skins.
Ethically the personal genetic medicine means personal genetic life insurance.
If you want grand challenges I could easily give you much 100 better ones.
Posted by: Rebecca Moreau
4:34 am
Terrible drawings, just, just terrible.
As for the predictions
· People power will come to life – Would people-power ever be enough? I see tech making us more lazy rather than becoming our own power plants. Something like this sounds much more realistic http://www.ted.com/talks/justin_hall_tipping_freeing_energy_from_the_grid.html
· You will never need a password again – You’re talking about ATMs. This will not aid convenience or security on private tech such as home computing.
· Mind reading is no longer science fiction – “Wow I think the girl across the office looks great in those jeans… no! DON’T MESSAGE HER THAT! NOW ITS MY FACEBOOK STATUS!”. The chances of us becoming mentally disciplined to the point of this actually working? 0.
· The digital divide will cease to exist – If people in 3rd world countries can track the village doctor, why not just use this “telemedicine”. Or fly to the local Asimo-medic where the just as viable cure-all magicpill2000 will be prescribed and everyone will live happily ever after.
· Junk mail will become priority mail – More and more we’re told to “check your junk folder just in case”. Kill junk mail and it’s source, let me decide what I want to read.
Posted by: Ben
3:18 am
hi, i think 5 in 5 can create a revolution in our society
Posted by: sam
7:22 pm
None of these predictions will come true within 5 years
In 5 years:
- Most people will still use passwords for all computer accounts, although there might be novelty (uneconomic, insecure) examples of computers recognising people without use of passwords
- Most houses will still rely on grid electricty. Many (but still a minority) of houses will have grid-connected solar power, but virtually none will be powered with ‘people power’ as in the IBM prediction
- Using detection of brain states to control computing (it ISNT mind reading!) will be not terribly more advanced than it currently is now – you can have computers do relatively rudimentary tasks using detection of brain states, but you won’t be able to do anything complicated, and it won’t be in mass consumer use.
- A large number of people in 3rd world countries will have mobile phones and access to the internet, but the extreme prediction that the ‘digital divide will cease to exist’ within 5 years is wrong. Many, many people will still have no access to, or use of, technology (especially the aged).
- In line with an increase in the cleverness of spam filters, advertisers will become more clever at devising ways to deliver junk mail to avoid such filters. Advertising will *never* be so well tailored that is not identified as spam – advertising even for products taht you want is annoying if it is delivered at an inopportune time. Within 5 years, your computer won’t be smart enough to automatically book tickets to your favourite band just by knowing your preferences – not without you having manually set up a search and purchase yourself.
Posted by: Steve
10:19 am
“…predictions, for instance, have pretty much come true:..”
Just like the flying car (or drivable plane), the predictions might have come true, yet they’re still useless or vastly unusable by the masses, so… ? Healthcare accessible anywhere? Don’t think some doctors from China are interested in my x-rays. Crystal ball for health? Don’t think we have the same definitions for “crystal ball”, deciphering the genome “affordably” is far from what a “crystal ball” is supposed to do, back to the fairy tale books.
In short, I’ll give you that the predictions have good “PR value”, as you put it.
Posted by: ranjix
8:21 pm
hi…..!!!
I think you doing the same thing that i trying to do well I think it will definitely help you just go and watch Keith Barry’s Show “Deception with Keith barry”, you will definitely be able to find some clues regarding to your project. and If I can help you please please contact me and I would like to join this project how do I join this project please tell me, at present I am working as a Asst. System Engineer and recently Passed out Engineer (2011), From India
Posted by: Akshay Dubey
8:19 pm
hi…..!!!
I think you doing the same thing that i trying to do well I think it will definitely help you just go and watch Keith Barry’s Show “Deception with Keith barry”, you will definitely be able to find some clues regarding to your project. and If I can help you please please contact me and I would like to join this project how do I join this project please tell me, at present I am working as a Asst. System Engineer and recently Passed out Engineer (2011), From India
Posted by: Akshay Dubey
6:18 pm
Is there a version of this video (and the others) available with captions for Hard of Hearing and Deaf individuals?
The YouTube auto-transcription service isn’t really up-to-speed just yet.
Posted by: Mike
11:30 am
Seems there is a big project behind it: see, for example, The IBM project for cognitive computing
http://ibmresearchalmaden.blogspot.com/2011/08/ibms-cognitive-computing-chips-make_23.html
Anyone can give a brief intro on those projects? I am highly interested in it! Thanks.
Posted by: Xiaodong
11:22 am
YOU WILL NEVER NEED A PASSWORD AGAIN…I think this one would be used widely very soon
Posted by: kamal
10:45 am
Robin,
Which two scare you and which two thrill you?
Posted by: Steve Hamm
10:39 am
Interesting. 2 of the 5 thrill me, 2 of the 5 scare me…
We indeed live in, and are creating, a brave new world.
Posted by: Robin Majumdar